Gujarat CM Narendra Modi is predicted to win a consecutive third time win the State Assembly Elections 2012. Latest Opinion Polls, Exit Polls and Surveys conducted by various agencies indicate result into the favour of Narendra Modi, despite opposition applying communal card against him.
According to a  pre-poll survey conducted by  by LensOnNews, the Congress party is projected to win 53 seats, Keshubhai Patel’s fledgling GPP just one seat and the remaining six seats will be won by independents and other parties. And, in terms of the popular vote, the BJP is likely to secure 46% against 36% for the Congress, 6% for the fledgling Gujarat Parivartan Party (GPP) and the remaining 12% for other parties and independents.
These are findings of the statewide opinion poll conducted by LensOnNews among a representative cross-sectional sample of 12,078 voters between 28 November and December 8. The survey was conducted after the filing of nominations. The poll findings carry a margin of error of three percent.
Keshubhai Factor Not Hurting BJP
Keshubhai Patel-led Gujarat Parivartan Party has been successful in taking away a sizeable chunk of the numerically strong Leuva Patel vote in the Sourashtra region by fanning anti-Narendra Modi sentiments. Yet, it has neither helped the GPP winning seats (except in the lone seat of Visavadar where Keshubhai Patel is tipped to win mainly because of Congress’s stealthy support) nor has it hurt the BJP in the Sourashtra region. The ill-tempered, casteist anti-Modi campaign unleashed by Keshubhai Patel has had the unintended consequence of galvanizing the support of Kshatriya castes (hitherto more loyal to the Congress) and Koli Patels in BJP’s support. Further, while the BJP experienced some exodus of Leuva Patels in Sourashtra region, in southern and central regions the Leuva community stayed solidly with the BJP even as other castes consolidated in its favour.
BJP May Cross 130 Seats
The projected tally for the BJP could swell beyond 130 seats if the state records either a high voter turnout of over 65 percent or the women’s turnout matches or exceeds that of men. The voter turnout in 2007 election was 60 percent and that of women was five percentage points lower than men’s (Women’s 57% to Men’s 62%). In recent elections to state assemblies (notably Uttar Pradesh and Bihar), women turnouts surpassed that of men.
Why Women Vote is Crucial
Narendra Modi enjoys a significantly higher popularity among women than men. Owing to this factor, the BJP in Gujarat gets a higher share of women vote than men’s. This is because women are not generally swayed by local level, candidate specific factors and often vote on the basis of issues and leadership. Thus, higher participation of women in Gujarat can act as an anti-dote to the local level anti-incumbency factor or the caste factor operating against some of the party’s candidates and thus can drive up the BJP’s tally on the strength of Narendra Modi’s personal charisma.
Congress’s Defensive Campaign
In politics, people vote on the basis of trust and promise. In this election, the Congress party relied heavily on a negative campaign on television featuring only paid television actors. The campaign was slick but lacked credibility. The defeat-weary party leadership was defensive throughout the campaign and showed some aggression in speech only towards the end by the mother-son Gandhi-duo descending on the state.
The Congress party’s prominent state leaders who were expected to lead the party’s charge in the state got stuck in their own constituencies. The BJP, in a well calibrated strategy, fielded strong candidates against all important leaders of the Congress. The Congress party’s leader of the opposition Shaktisinh Gohil is fighting a losing battle in Bhavnagar Rural constituency and the State Congress President Arjun Modhvadia is locked in a cliffhanger contest in Porbandar assembly. Shankarsinh Vaghela who was tipped to contest from Dehgam constituency changed his seat in the last minute to have some chance of winning his seat.
The first phase of Gujarat assembly election will be held in 87 assembly constituencies covering the entire Sourashtra region and South Gujarat. Polling for the second phase will be held in 95 assembly constituencies on December 17.
The Gujarat assembly election has acquired national level significance for its political overtones. LensOnNews was the first off the block to predict re-election of BJP in Gujarat several months ago. And, closer to the election dates, we bring you this most recent prediction based on a statewide poll.
Content adapted from Lensonnews, original article can be found here