According to UN’s National Centre of Environmental Prediction (NCEP) latest update, El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-neutral conditions (near normal temperatures of the Pacific) are expected to develop during May-June 2011 and continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2011.
In an ENSO-neutral scenario the normal probabilities of success are 80% and 20% for failure of the Indian monsoon. The IMD’s long range forecast for the monsoon is 98% of normal with an error margin of 5%. Global international weather models are not showing consensus on the Indian monsoon. The Asia Pacific Centre for Climate Change (APCC) based out of the city of Busan in Korea has very categorically indicated “enhanced” precipitation over India with no major variation in regional distribution of rain in its June-July-August (JJA) outllook. The NCEP is also indicating normal or surplus rainfall in its JJA outlook with major concentrations of rainfall on the east and west coast. But the JJA European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) outlook is showing probabilities of above-normal rainfall in North-West, West and central India but below normal rainfall in East India. The International Research Institute based out of Columbia University in the US JJA outlook is not indicating any trend with the exception of above normal precipitation central/east UP/Nepal and Bihar. The IMD is expected to update its monsoon forecast in the next few days.
The southwest monsoon has set in over Kerala on 29th of May. And it seems that the monsoon will keep its date with Mumbai on June 10. Like this time, last year the Arabian Sea arm of monsoon seems to be more active than the Bay Of Bengal. The Bay is relatively quite, and no major cyclogenesis predicted in the next three/four days.
It seems that Gujarat will start receiving rainfall before the eastern states. Pre-monsoon showers will start hitting the state from June 7. Pre-monsoon showers/thunderstorms will continue over entire north India. Maximum temperatures over north and east will be more or less near normal unlike last year. Central India will remain hot and might receive occasional pre-monsoon showers in the next week.
whatever else, thanks to god at this summer there is no record breaking temprature record in India. and if it is due to global warming then I thought it is good for India.