Pilgrims who trek to the Amarnath cave shrine in Jammu and Kashmir and the horses that carry them could be used as sensors of an impending earthquake.
Geologists foresee a major earthquake in the Himalayas in the near future, but can one predict it? Possibly yes, if we could learn from past examples and use abnormal animal and human behaviour as a very reliable precursor.
Till now, there has been only one case of successful prediction from China – the Haicheng earthquake of February 1975 – based on abnormal animal behaviour but there have been several precursors observed without actual prediction. The abnormal animal and human precursors are yet to be accepted by researchers as seismic precursors.
The December 26, 2004, Sumatran earthquake and tsunami that caused nearly 250,000 deaths in 23 nations is a recent example. A few hours before its occurrence, elephant rides – one of the most popular tourist attractions in Thailand – got disrupted as the elephants refused to obey their mahouts and threw off their mounted tourists, puzzling everyone. Hours later, the earthquake struck. In the Andamans, marine animals like snakes, toads, turtles, crabs and some fish became uneasy and jumped on shore before the quake struck.
The famous Kangra earthquake of April 4, 1905, was sensed the previous night by animals in Lahore zoo, some 200 km away, that started roaring and making unusual noises. According to observations the then British Zoo superintendent recorded in his office diary, all animals were refusing water and food. He kept thinking the whole night about it without sleep and at about four the next morning, the earthquake struck.
Considering the Kangra (1905) and Thailand (2004) examples – spanning a century – it would be better if we try to use this information and several documented reports about abnormal animal behaviour before each destructive earthquake for seismic prediction.
Some people too are affected during the pre-seismic period. It was reported for the first time after the Spitak (Armenia) earthquake of December 1988 that the rate of deliveries and out- patient admissions increased greatly. After the 1993 Latur earthquake in India, medical data from Latur Civil Hospital showed the number of deliveries and out-patients on the previous day were about six to seven times the average – supported by data from Port Blair and Muzaffarabad hospitals also.
The above examples can be effectively used during the Amarnath yatra period to exploit the human and animal behaviour to sense any imminent earthquake.
This year’s Amarnath Yatra and other pilgrimages will see devotees pass through difficult mountainous terrain of Gangotri, Jamnotri, Kedarnath, Badrinath and Vaishno Devi, besides the Ambubachi Mela on the outskirt of Guwahati. All these are in the high-seismic zone IV, almost bordering Zone V. An earthquake of magnitude-6 or more could pose problems.
Keeping in mind the historical examples from Kangra, the Andamans and Thailand, it would be a good idea to use the large number of horses as seismic precursors. If it is seen that all horses are refusing to carry pilgrims and show abnormal behaviour, then it could be possibly be an earthquake precursor.
Similarly, if several pilgrims suddenly become uneasy and complain of chest pain, headache and nausea or suddenly become wild or angry, then this is also a seismic precursor. Usually, the abnormal human precursors are exhibited by about one person in four a few hours before the occurrence of an earthquake. In addition, the ubiquitous mobile telephone could be effectively used by pilgrims as seismic precursor as it would start malfunctioning and then become non-functioning. This happens about 100 to 150 minutes before the occurrence of any medium to large magnitude earthquake.
This was observed prior to the Bhuj earthquake (2001), Sumatran earthquake (2004) and Kashmir earthquake (2005) and also in several countries such as China, Japan, Iran and New Zealand.
If it is observed that the entire zoological specimens (including reptiles, birds, millipedes, centipedes, etc) mostly horses, and some noticeable portion of the pilgrims are showing signs of abnormal behaviour and at the same time all mobile telephones have started mal-functioning followed by non-functioning, then it could be assumed that an earthquake is likely to occur within a short time. The administrators may contact the officials concerned in this connection.
The purpose of this article is to create seismic awareness and not create any apprehension in the minds of the pilgrims, who should know the central and state governments have been taking all possible precautions for their safety.